The upshot: I struggle to imagine a process whereby an obscure English children’s game somehow inspired gestural customs in Georgia, Egypt, Russia, and Iran within less than a century. It seems more reasonable to me that these customs might instead originate in an ancient Mediterranean tradition of apotropaic magic, or charms intended to combat bad luck.
And while Clavicular has been hobnobbing with the highest-followed right-wing influencers, he has made it known that looks indeed matter to him more than anything. In an interview with conservative commentator Michael Knowles, Clavicular called Vice President JD Vance "subhuman." When asked to explain, Clavicular said Vance has a "short face width to height ratio," has a "recessed side profile," and is overweight. Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, is a chad, according to Clavicular.
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The “Knocking on Wood” Wikipedia page mentions Roud’s conclusion, and this claim of a 19th century origin has circulated online as the final say on the matter. If you go back to the original, though, Roud’s proposal actually ends on an ambivalent note: “Before this theory [of 19th century origins] can be finally accepted, however, an examination of the history of European forms of this custom would be advisable.”